Pig price “fell before the festival and rose after the festival”, the cause of abnormal rise and fall has been found, the trend of pig price in 2022

2022-08-01 0 By

Throughout the recent week of pig price changes, it is not difficult to find that pig prices before the Spring Festival “miserable decline”, after the Spring Festival “surge.The trend.According to the usual prices change rule, tu qi to stock up before the Spring Festival, to prepare them to consumers, is pork consumption boom, prices should rise, and after the Spring Festival because most consumers will give priority to with frozen meat consumption, slaughtering enterprises will also because just started, open probability is not high and reduce the demand for pig, pig supply exceeds demand, prices fall.But this Spring Festival, pig prices have walked out of the “festival before the fall after the rise” abnormal trend.Before prices fall, investigate its reason, I think the first thing is a pig farmers mentality change, according to the pig farm owner, many pig farms also believed that prices would be in the consumer before the Spring Festival driven and usher in a significant rise, many pig farms are pressure bar waiting for the arrival of the Spring Festival, the results after the Spring Festival is coming, prices did not rise as scheduled, pressure bar farmers psychological panic,The pig began to accelerate.Followed by parts of pig disease before the Spring Festival is not stable, though, with the help of the pig industry in China pig disease has been the effective control, but still is to send out parts, once the onset of pig farms in order to reduce the loss will be selling pigs, selling only a home to return to the pigs, that is listed into after slaughtering slaughtering pork.This also stimulates some pig farms to speed up the sale of pigs, before the pig price pressure drop.Pig price rises after the festival, one is because the number of pigs available for market to reduce, because of the decline of pig price before the festival, many pig farms misestimate the trend of pig price after the festival, many choose to market before the year, leading to the market after the pig was overdrawn in advance.Second rised because farmers mood is strong, the market or market pigs are basic in years ago, pressure bar to the years are not rushing to market, and with the tu construction enterprises, the demand for pig increased, to the glut of supply and demand for such pigs from years ago into the demand, prices rise.In addition, the impact of spoiler factors, including reserve meat and frozen pork, has also weakened, and the combination of these factors contributed to the rise in pig prices after the New Year.Media analysis believes that pig prices in February there are three good news, February pig prices have the hope to continue to maintain a narrow rise trend.1. During the Spring Festival, pork consumption is ideal. Frozen meat is consumed in large quantities.2. At the price of about 7 yuan, the pig farm is again facing a loss of 100-200 yuan per pig, so there is a large space for price increase in the face of low price.3. After the price of pigs fell, the mood of pig farmers is getting stronger and stronger. In addition, the number of pigs available for market is decreasing, so it may be difficult for slaughterers to implement the plan of pig collection at lower price.The number of breeding sows in China at the end of 2021 was 4% higher than that at the end of 2020, according to official data. Pig prices plunged in the second and third quarters of 2021 as the number of pigs on the market increased and the weight of pigs on the market increased due to production capacity recovery.In 2022, the supply of pigs in the first half of the year will still be in surplus, and the pig market will continue to cut capacity, which means a sharp rise in pig prices in the first half of this year is unlikely.However, prices rose in the second half of the year as the number of pigs available for sale fell in line with the decline in sow stocks and pork consumption rose in line with the drop in temperatures.According to the data, the market quantity of pigs in 2022 is expected to increase by about 4%-5% compared with that in 2021. It can be speculated that the average price of pigs in 2022 will also decline compared with that in 2021. Considering the ideal pig price in the first half of 2021, it is expected that the average price of pigs in 2022 can be maintained at about 8 yuan.The first half of the year will face a relatively large loss, and the second half is expected to narrow profit.