This bull market in A-shares will last until around 2026

2022-05-31 0 By

Only see the big trend clearly, in order to have the right sense of direction in the stock market fluctuations, in order to maintain a stable state of mind, but also in order to gain in the stock market.The stock market is not a random market, much less a speculative casino.The fluctuation of the stock market is deeply influenced by the laws of economy, politics, psychology and the stock market itself.The stock market has clear regularity, can study can grasp its trend.This round of bull market, which started in 2019, is the fourth round of bull market in A-shares.At present, only the first stage has been completed, i.e. the first wave rise and the second wave adjustment.The first wave and the second wave are essentially the transition phase between bull and bear.The big wave is from January 2019 to February 2021. At this time, the bear market has just ended, and the market mentality is unstable, accompanied by the downward trend of the economy, as well as the impact of the epidemic of the century.Therefore, at this stage, the stock index did not increase much, and the main market could only choose a few industries with stable performance and strong policy support, namely blue chip consumer stocks and new energy stocks, hence the structural bull market.Big wave adjustment, namely, from February 2021 to the end of January 2022, big wave and big wave constitute a part of the long-term bottom, and big wave is also the biggest retrenchment of the long-term bull market.The trend of the Sse index is relatively complex, and the SSE 50 and SSE 300 index can clearly see the operation of the big wave adjustment.As the first wave is a structural bull market, the second wave adjustment is naturally dominated by the second class stocks, and the eight types of stocks have limited gains, generally showing a bottom shock pattern.Starting from February 2022, Dailang will last for about one and a half years to two years. The rising target of Dailang is at least around 4500 points of Shanghai Composite Index, and if strong, it will even reach 5000 points.When the stock market moves to this stage, the economy will resume its upward trend and various industries will gradually recover.Thus, growth stocks will replace value stocks to become the mainstream variety.There is also a profound background of China’s economic transformation and upgrading and its transition from the industrial era to the post-industrial era.And this transformation and transition, is to take the science and technology information industry as the direction of change.This is the fundamental reason why tech growth stocks will be the core of the long-term future.Technology stocks will become the core mainline in the rise of big waves.Science and technology innovation board during the big wave will be outstanding, science and technology innovation 50 index will become the leading index.At the same time, the big wave is mainly driven by the implementation of the full market registration system, so financials and low valuation stocks in the main board market will outperform.After mid-2023, the market will enter the fourth wave adjustment, which will last at least a year and a half.Correction lows around 3300-3500.During the four waves operation, because the foreign market has been in a bear market, so the adjustment will be more complex, the range will be larger.2024 stock market into the big five wave stage target to record highs.Five waves of market is essentially a shipment stage, the performance of the vast majority of stocks to lift the final market.Big Five waves will end around 2026.With the completion of five waves, this round of bull market is completely over.The bear market that began in 2026 will last until around 2030.The stock market is a barometer of the economy, but its current level of more than 3,000 points does not reflect years of growth.And that historical debt will eventually be paid.This bull market will finally reflect the achievements of China’s economic development, and the index will return to a reasonable valuation level, that is, the Shanghai Index above 5000 points.The stock market is a mirror reflecting the essence of human nature.To see the future is to better grasp the present.