The inevitable collapse of ningde times from the characteristics of business model
The title of my article yesterday was “seesaw”, which said that the current market capital increment is insufficient and there is no consensus on the market style. The capital can only be bumped between value stocks and track stocks. If you rise, I will fall, and if you fall, I will rise.The typical case here is the era of Ping An and Ningde in China, where stock prices show a highly negative correlation.At the same time, the positive correlation between ningde era and index is relatively high.Index rose, the track stocks rushed, China peace fell, index fell, funds immediately ran into China safe hedge, track stocks fell.Ping An’s share price rose from 46.53 yuan to 54.18 yuan, finally standing at the 54 mark.Ningde times fell from 692 yuan to 518 yuan, and even fell below the 500 yuan mark today.How does the market develop?I want to talk about a strawberry.Yesterday I rode electric car from the front of a shop, saw a stall selling strawberry, strawberry is very red, I suddenly stopped, asked the boss: how much money a catty?Boss enthusiastic response: 45 a catty.Hearing this price, grasp the gas of turn head to walk, because I just bought the same strawberry last weekend, 25 yuan!If you were 30, maybe 35, I’d buy two boxes.You think I’m stupid for being so expensive?Today, I stopped by a fruit store I often go to after work. This store is always good and cheap. I went to see the price, the same strawberry, 16.8 yuan!Looks like I got my leeks cut off after all.How is the price of strawberries determined?I think there are two. One is value, which is called undifferentiated human labor condensed in commodities.For example, if the farmer’s cost is 10 yuan, then the selling price is very difficult to fall below 10 yuan, because that price is unprofitable, there will be no one to plant, so the supply will decrease (and the demand will increase because the price is low), and the price will increase.One is the price. The price here refers to the price offered by both sides of the transaction. The price here is related to the additional attributes of the product, such as Christmas, Spring Festival, Valentine’s Day, etc., so it will be more expensive because of the new value.For example, in high-end shopping malls, high-end fruit stores, because of its high cost (decoration and labor), so the price will be higher.One is the willingness of both sides to offer, the seller can casually bid, the buyer does not know the market, or in a hurry to eat, or it is likely to accept.What we need to pay attention to here is that high-end shopping malls selling strawberries and street stalls selling strawberries are probably the same business. On the surface, high-end shopping malls have high gross margin, but their intermediate cost is also high.As long as the market is transparent, there is no threshold, transactions can be freely quoted, transaction costs are not high, then no matter what you do, in the long run, overall, it is a mediocre business.What is a bad business?One is that the price of the product is constrained by the cost; the other is that there is no threshold in the market. These two factors make it difficult for the business to obtain excess returns.Otherwise, it’s good business.The best business is one that has the right to raise prices and a moat, the next best business is one that has a moat without the right to raise prices, and the worst business is one that has neither the right to raise prices nor a moat, but is highly profitable in the short term.For example, when the industry is in short supply, many companies making masks and testing instruments make crazy profits during the epidemic. It seems that these companies have the right to raise prices in a certain period of time, but the right to raise prices is given by the market with less supply than demand, not by the company’s market position.This is the worst kind of business.In my opinion, Ningde Times is this kind of enterprise, its profitability is brought by the market pattern, not the product strength of the product itself, as a homogeneous product, does it have cost advantage?Is there a brand advantage?As an enterprise TO B, its product value must be realized through the C-terminal, which is impossible for the enterprise TO grasp.For example, if I buy a Tesla, the battery of a Ning era will be more expensive than the battery of other companies with the same performance. Is that possible?No one cares about the battery inside the car they buy, the car even if the quality is good, its price right must be reflected in the vehicle.We only care about the battery performance of the car, not who produces it. Ningde Times can only achieve its long-term competitiveness through cost performance.Can you?It is possible that one way is to reduce its own costs through the integration of the industrial chain. Unfortunately, this path has been proved repeatedly by all walks of life for several decades or hundreds of years that it does not work. The other way is to form its own monopoly pattern, but that will become a negative force hindering the development of the industry, which is not allowed.In the final analysis, I think the high profitability of Ningde era is short-term, and it is possible for the company TO obtain a long period of strong profitability through excellent management ability, but it is very tired, which is the sorrow of all TO B enterprises.The biggest disadvantage of Ningde era is not its performance growth in the next three or five years, nor is someone selling chips, but a business model that cannot maintain super profitability for a long time. The biggest disadvantage is that it is really too expensive, so we have bought everything we need to buy.When the long strength is exhausted, there is only one fall left?1. I saw a statement today.The only way to gain fans is to sing high.You’ll see if anyone cares if you try singing in the low post.So human nature dictates that making money is only for a few.Deeply touched.My wechat official account has only a small number of fans, around 48,000. This year, it dropped by more than 5,000, and now it has 43,000.Why ah?I bought China Ping an, China Pacific.Vanke.They’re not going up. They’re stupid stocks.Known as fool chief rudder master, can not drop powder?I this year’s analysis of China Shenhua, the Yangtze River power, Wantong high-speed, up can also, but up I am embarrassed to say again.Peace can blow for a long time, because again go up for a long time, or undervalued.What is interesting this year is that we can add new blowing targets: China Concept Internet and Hang Seng Technology.Many people commented that I started from a safe high, blowing to the current low, continue to blow.NO, that’s not the case. Ping An has only gone from obviously undervalued to abnormally undervalued. Now Ping An in China is around 50, and I think it’s quite normal for ping An to reach 150 in two or three years.2. Poly Development announced that in January, the contracted area of the company was 1.8576 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.73%;The contract amount reached 28.302 billion yuan, 34.29% less than last year.The house isn’t selling. They’re lowering the sale.China’s M2 money supply grew 9.8 per cent year-on-year in January, compared with 9 per cent previously.M0 money in circulation increased by 18.5% year on year, with 1.54 trillion yuan of net cash issued during the month.New RMB loans were 3.98 trillion yuan, but deposits increased 3.83 trillion yuan.To tell the truth, in the past two years, I feel that prices are getting more and more expensive. The figure shows the dividing line of property tax rate in Shanghai in recent years. Is there a horrible feeling?In 2021 and 2022, for example, the unit price will increase by 8,466 yuan. If it is a 100-square-meter house, it will be 846,600 yuan. How many people can save 846,600 yuan a year?Rising housing prices eventually feed into the cost of living and the cost of production, like your employees’ salaries, rent, etc.The product can only rise in price (if it does not rise, it will lose money), but income cannot keep up with the growth of assets, and consumption capacity is insufficient. Finally, the product keeps rising, but it cannot be sold.The main cost of current house is land grant gold, it is accumulation fund loan loose tie, it is allowance to buy a house, it is deed tax derate, reduce land grant gold directly not to go?I don’t know what’s going on, adding friction costs.I saw a piece of news today.Huangpu district of Shanghai, an old woman’s son business bankruptcy owed 900,000, and then fell ill and lost the ability to work, the 82-year-old old woman will come out to sell oil pier to earn money, old woman said, “the money of the debt also light, do not do later.”Oil pier is not expensive, 3 yuan a, in order to save money every day to eat cake and drink water to appease hunger, February 8 this year because of illness died.I don’t know what you think. In fact, most of us are ordinary people. We will be happy if we have enough food and warm clothes for a lifetime.I always say that our risk resistance decreases as we get older, you go out, you go broke, you go young.As you get older, you need to change your asset allocation from yield first to certainty first, and turn the appreciation of assets into the stability of cash flow.This old old woman more than 80 come out to do oil mound son pay debts for son, do not know to be doing what?Where are the children?I think about it by myself. In the next few decades, you said that you have a job, a house and a child, but these things are not reliable, nor can you rely on lawyers. In the end, social security and insurance can accompany you to the end.If begin to retire from 60 years old, live 90 years old, a month 10 thousand, ability is only 36 million just, the money that treats a disease prepares 1 million again, 46 million is enough.All that remains is to be happy, to be healthy, to walk, to look, to do good deeds, and that is the real life.